Probability of returns

Equities, FX, commodities, fixed income, and volatility.
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ricko
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Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2004 12:00 am

Probability of returns

Post by ricko »

Please excuse me if this is a silly question but I'm new in this. In this paper:



http://polymer.bu.edu/hes/articles/ggps03.pdf



the authors claim that: P(|r| > x) ~ x^-ζ,  ζ ~ 3



where r is the change of the logarithm of stock price in a given time interval;



But that does no compute properly. If for example:



p(t) = 45 and p(t - Δt) = 40 then r = 0.1178



Then: P(r > 0.11) = 0.11 ^-3  ?



or do we  have to multiply the return by 100?



P(r > 1.1) = 1.1 ^-3 = 0.75 ?
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sharpend
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Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2004 12:00 am

Probability of returns

Post by sharpend »

Look at the description under figure 1.
Panic Early
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