Fund Check Carlisle Management

Cheng · Post by **Cheng** » Sat Jun 18, 2016 6:24 pm

CatRe and uncorrelated returns. Never took off.

Can you elaborate a bit while we are still off-topic? I thought ILS is the current new hot thingy (with everyone and their grandma piling money into it while salivating over fantastic 100yr PMLs based on 10 years of data).

chiral3 · Post by **chiral3** » Sat Jun 18, 2016 6:52 pm

@Cheng: I assume you don't mean to elaborate on returns... I think outside of the US certain funding is getting a recharge from the regulatory landscape (Solvency 2). In the US the opposite is happening. They realized they incentivized certain "off balance sheet" transactions and now they are trying to remove the arb and have things come back. I believe it was done in the life space already and is happening elsewhere. In terms of elephant hunting, i.e., printing big rare deals as opposed to frequent small flow, those shops have downsized. Many of the longevity swap desks bled out years ago, the ILS solutions desks have been let go or have downsized. Big names with existing reinsurers (BNP, SG, etc.) continue simply because these entities exist. Capital rules and leverage ratios are a bitch. The hedge funds, like AQR, that dabbled, have retreated. The idea was simply to have these premiums that had no relationship at all to the returns coming off the trading desks. Private equity is still big in the M&A space, especially after a big run for a few years (e.g., Athene, Guggenheim, Apollo) but that was mainly to gain access to the assets, not the businesses proper. They flew close to the sun, also, re regulators got a little antsy.

EspressoLover · Post by **EspressoLover** » Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:52 pm

> At some point your view has to be that you either are better than lifecos at forecasting mortality (you're not)

Is that really the case? It doesn't strike me as the physicals for life insurance being that extensive. What if you just sequence people's genomes at 23AndMe? As far as I know the insurers can't even legally do that. An eviler man than I might find a pool of healthy-looking 50-somethings who are likely to develop some early-onset inherited disease. At the very least the APOE allele accounts for ~15% of mortality variance.

Throw in a DEXA body-comp scan and the sitting test, and you're miles ahead of the standard height/weight/blood-pressure mortality tables.

chiral3 · Post by **chiral3** » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:19 am

One of the best returning hedge funds in recent years is run by actuaries. Go figure.

rowdyroddypiper · Post by **rowdyroddypiper** » Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:02 am

@el - interesting thoughts. Lots of edge is just regulatory arb I guess. Doesn't seem to solve the origination problem, however.

@chiral - they're a very interesting case. All the money afaik is from FO/HNIW+. No third party marketing, almost no investor relations and many episodes of pants shitting volatility. Its almost as though their investor base is action junkies.