Stock market and election

Strange · Post by **Strange** » Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:15 pm

There are couple dealers that have created Trump and Biden baskets of stocks (i.e. sectors/companies that are expected to benefit or hurt from the election outcome) and use option skew to imply the current election probability. I am not convinced that something like that would be at all accurate given the number of moving parts, though.

ronin · Post by **ronin** » Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:52 pm

> Trump and Biden baskets of stocks (i.e. sectors/companies that are expected to benefit or hurt from the election outcome)

That's just marketing - a conversation opener for sales calls.

@gaj, your best bet is to look at betting markets and betting aggregators. They won't all show you price histories, but some might.

Strange · Post by **Strange** » Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:52 am

"That's just marketing - a conversation opener for sales calls."

LOL, that covers pretty much everything that comes from the sell side ${L_SMILIES_VERY_HAPPY}$

nikol · Post by **nikol** » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:57 am

Close neighbour Trudeau's statement "Canafa is on the brink" can make unpleasant impact.

ronin · Post by **ronin** » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:08 am

> LOL, that covers pretty much everything that comes from the sell side ${L_SMILIES_VERY_HAPPY}$

Gotta earn a living somehow. It beats cutting cheese for Tesco, I guess...

Strange · Post by **Strange** » Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:58 am

> It beats cutting cheese for Tesco, I guess...

Cheese ends from Tesco would qualify as PIK bonus, I'd imagine?

ronin · Post by **ronin** » Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:50 am

> Cheese ends from Tesco would qualify as PIK bonus, I'd imagine?

You make me feel like I'm missing out now....

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