Re: Better Trading Decisions

James · Post by **James** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 9:09 am

"then how on Earth can you recover *God's* invisible market model?"

Inspector, Johnny's talking religion again!!!!

https://nuclearphynance.com/misc/forum%20guidelines.aspx

James "The Catholic" and former Seminarian and Monk.

"Like other occult techniques of divination, the statistical method has a private jargon deliberately contrived to obscure its methods from non-practitioners." -- G. O. Ashley

"The good Christian should beware of mathematicians and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that mathematicians have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and confine man in the bonds of Hell." -- St. Augustine (354-430)

Catholic Encyclopedia entry on Divination, including Geomancy: http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/05048b.htm

Experimentalists think that it is a mathematical theorem while the mathematicians believe it to be an experimental fact. -- Jules Henri Poincare (1854-1912) on Gaussian processes.

Wink

A mathematician who can only generalise is like a monkey who can only climb up a tree, and a mathematician who can only specialise is like a monkey who can only climb down a tree. In fact neither the up monkey nor the down monkey is a viable creature. A real monkey must find food and escape his enemies and so must be able to incessantly climb up and down. A real mathematician must be able to generalise and specialise.

Quoted in D MacHale, Comic Sections (Dublin 1993)

Johnny · Post by **Johnny** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 9:11 am

LOL! Big Smile

RFMontraz · Post by **RFMontraz** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 9:34 am

Sorry dudes just a question: given one or more time series (like the one Nonius just posted) what sort of answer you guys should provide? Only if it's random or not?

Nonius · Post by **Nonius** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 9:40 am

tell me if a) there is any element of predictability and b) whether you have trading strategy that isn't bullshit, ie, that you will make money with a high degree of certainty.

Johnny · Post by **Johnny** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 9:49 am

hmm, b) is a useful criterion in a game like this where the process generating model is fixed. But it's not obviously useful in real trading, where trades that backtest well are often trades *discovered* by everyone and which therefore turn out unprofitable. b) therefore has the effect of putting a substantial wedge between this game and trading reality.