Re: Pearls of analyst wisdom

AndyM · Post by **AndyM** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:05 pm

I'll kick off:

From a large European bank's FX weekly:

'While we acknowledge that the rand is probably too strong from a long-term valuation perspecitve, we disagree with those who see it as "overvalued" '

The Dr Evil-esque quotation marks around 'overvalued' add a particular poignancy...

apine · Post by **apine** » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:38 pm

i have always like the euphemism for sell:

source of funds

AndyM · Post by **AndyM** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:26 pm

Bloomberg 17:00. European bonds fall as some investors judge yields too high

kr · Post by kr » Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:35 pm

Big Smile

that one's a real winner

dgn2 · Post by **dgn2** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:58 pm

Rookie_Quant · Post by **Rookie_Quant** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:02 pm

I once took the AGEdwards 'top 50 stocks' list and created an equally-weighted portfolio, shorting every name.

I was up 35% in 7 months (the S&P was down about 13%).

jungle · Post by **jungle** » Thu Aug 19, 2004 10:18 am

heard recently....

"seeing sellers [of treasuries] on the uptick...uncertain whether this is short-term arbitrage against equities"

either i'm very dumb or that is stretching the limits of "arbitrage".

kr · Post by kr » Thu Aug 19, 2004 1:44 pm

agree lately the govy / equity corr hasn't been too high, but at least earlier in the year I'm sure you could pretty much play equity indices in the off hours in the tsy mkt thru corr

Rookie_Quant · Post by **Rookie_Quant** » Thu Aug 26, 2004 9:08 pm

[b]Junior analyst guy (me):[/b] I've built a pretty simple model for our position sizing, and it seems to show we have about half of our positions misaligned for the level of risk that we agree we want to take. I believe it's a pretty easy to rectify the situation, and we can still play around the fringes, but your own professions of risk and exposures are pretty much out of line across the board.

[b]Senior Guy:[/b] So what exactly does this thing do?

[b]Junior:[/b] Well, it's far from perfect, but it takes our allocations, derives 2 different measures of the risk inherent in the portfolio, assigns a user-defined risk budget to each position, one that defaults to statistics and another that is more qualitative.

[b]Senior:[/b] What kind of statistics...

[b]Junior:[/b] (moving on) Then it gives a static position size allowed and an acceptable range, both in an uncorrelated environment and one in which correlations are stressed and begin to converge. In each case, we are over allocated.

[b]Senior:[/b] Well, I have always been under the impression that we should aim for being in the second quartile every month, because at the end of the year, that will put us in the top quartile.

[b]Junior Guy:[/b] (stares blank for about 90 seconds...and then leaves)

AndyM · Post by **AndyM** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 12:10 pm

"...the fundamental case for sustained AUD/NZD strength remains as absent as ever in our assessment (leaving aside arguments about valuation)"

...from the same gurus who provided the Rand quote.