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NatGas: neg. implied period to period volas
Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2007 5:25 pm
by doobs
What is wrong with adding seasonality? As suggested by the other members?
NatGas: neg. implied period to period volas
Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:24 pm
by CommOddity
>What is wrong with adding seasonality? As suggested by the other members?
...I think it's reasonable: I don't have very clear [i]how[/i] to estimate the seasonality of volatility and at the same time been consistent with market cumulative vols.
In the past I've been dealing with price processes which incorporate seasonality (power models like Lucia Scwhartz) but I don't have many clues on how to do it on volatility.
If there's any reference/paper would be very welcome!
thks all
NatGas: neg. implied period to period volas
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:17 pm
by doobs
Calibration will not be easy!
Take a look at this paper,
http://www.caf.dk/MMF2006/fetch.php?id=16&field=paper
but you can also look into GARCH type models for estimating the seasonality of volatility.
NatGas: neg. implied period to period volas
Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:20 am
by CommOddity
Thks doobs, I'll check it out...