Bitcoin

svisstack · Post by **svisstack** » Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:38 pm

@jslade: did you think he faked the emails and other things? looks like quite an effort

jslade · Post by **jslade** » Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:44 pm

'cypherpunks' were weird people.

FWIIW for exchange software, I dunno why I didn't remember these guys:

http://marketgridsystems.com/about-us/

nikol · Post by **nikol** » Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:11 pm

Collapse was beautiful. Same effect as CB intervention.

Somehow it started days before USD-EUR move.

Is there any link?

My conspiracy idea is that someone with knowledge about upcoming depreciating dollar has moved assets out of BTC and injected into leveraged dollar deal. The rest was just following panic.

Another idea is about Miners' World War - II (first happened back in mid 2011)

NeroTulip · Post by **NeroTulip** » Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:31 am

I suspect some tax loss harvesting contributed to the selloff, even though bitcoin-people are not too much into tax stuff... But I wonder what gains these losses would offset, as it has been a pretty crappy year for investors generally.

nikol · Post by **nikol** » Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:40 pm

For investors perhaps, although not exactly since write-offs of losses are traditional way to offset taxes.

For miners yes. Look at hash rate decline. Below $3000 the sell-offs BTC will accelerate.

However, this jumpy dynamics (seen at both, macro and micro levels) looks very much as manipulative.

One thing is good - volatility. Option prices jump !

NeroTulip · Post by **NeroTulip** » Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:28 pm

Why do you see acceleration of the decline below $3000? How does that affect mining, and why is $3000 the magic number?

nikol · Post by **nikol** » Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:24 pm

It is a guesstimate based on:

1. historical lookback which has its own psychological and symbolic impact. 3000 was a last minimum achieved at 15SEP17 when everyone bashed BTC including famous J.Dimon statement that BTC is fraud.

2. pricing structure of mining companies, where they experience losses at levels below 3000. Small miners, less optimized, experience losses already, such as householders.

Example of today:

Break-even is achieved 14Th/s, 5 cent/kWh and BTCUSD=2600 (but there are other costs like price of device, personnel, legal risks, etc!)

https://whattomine.com/coins/1-btc-sha-256?utf8=%E2%9C%93&hr=14000.0&p=1370.0&fee=0.0&cost=0.05&hcost=0.0&btc_enabled=true&btc=2600.0&commit=Calculate

It is like power plant - once your production goes under water, you start selling assets to maintain production and market share.

3. unclear policy of big miners, especially of the one who is Unknown. These guys are aware of above gaming rules.

https://www.blockchain.com/en/pools

4. I also personally do not rule out a possibility that BigMoney are looking to enter the market and startup new bubble.

Disclaimer: I made these links non-clickable on purpose, such that you see yourself where you going to. Crypto space is still quite infected.

svisstack · Post by **svisstack** » Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:44 pm

Why the miners will want to be exposed to the additional volatility related to the price change? They probably unload inventory as fast as possible. If someone is speculating I think it's not related to the mining itself.

nikol · Post by **nikol** » Mon Dec 03, 2018 3:53 pm

> miners ... probably unload inventory as fast as possible.

Not true. Most miners including the big one are genuine believers into BTC.

I know few of smaller scale, they suffer because selling BTC for them is like "end of everything".

Besides, one can buy puts to protect asset value or futures to hedge exposure.

jslade · Post by **jslade** » Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:54 am

Everyone said the first 2018 selloff in March or whatever it was had something to do with tax surprises. Much more likely IMO.

My favorite zerohedge tier speculation (which is a little more than a speculation): man, Tesla's shares are doing remarkably well all things considered.