China RMB reval? Trade ideas?

[kr]

mg of course you are correct - how exactly does it go again?

probably I get it confused because it's not all that true...

[Martingale]

It will be interesting to see what's in the mind of the Chinese goverment, I guess they have been thinking hard on how to tackle this, I will see what I can get by asking some friends...



kr, about your comment, it's not accurate, when we were little, a story like this had been told " Once upon a time, there was a monk living in a temple himself, he has to get water for himself, so he had to work hard to do it all by himself, then later another monk joined him, so he could share the duty with his colleague.....later on they have another monk joining there, you would think their life will be easier, wrong! they were debating who should go for delvering water and they could not get any...."

[tabris]

Ok, this is just shooting the breezy but I also don't think the chinese will revalue despite all the speculation.  But my main concern was how do I take advantage of the current speculative situation.  My first idea was maybe to put on a butterfly with the high vols right now but I am somewhat hesitant.

[YukaRedux]

One of the problems is that they have repeatedly stated that they want to "surprise" the market with the timing - so I guess the more we expect it to happen, the less likely it is.... Tongue out



But the signs are right - they stayed clear of the G7 meeting - the May Day holidays are the top bet for an announcement.



My guess is they will "surprise" by a very modest widening of the band, followed a lot of "that's-all-for-now chatter", and then a much greater widening of the band in Q3 (which would be more of a surprise).

[Johnny]

Yuka, what do you think the Chinese would gain from following this strategy?