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I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:34 am
by Nonius
South China Sea
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:07 pm
by Kitno
This is like how wars get begun innit.
A rising power getting crimped by the current big dog.
Hmmm 1871, 1914, 1931, 1941, 1949, etc.
When, not if. No one ever learns.
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:28 pm
by Nonius
yeah, I've a friend who's "sure" a war's going to start over that or Putin clobbering someone.
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:19 pm
by Nonius
and maybe an angry Turkey?
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:47 pm
by ronin
That story is so last week.
In 2016, geopolitical crises last 15 minutes. Take that, Andy Warholl.
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:30 pm
by Nonius
well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....right when it was announced mofo.
on the geopolitical shit. I'm guessing at least Turkey ain't over. Angry
edit: ok, I guess you refer to Turkey.
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:51 pm
by ronin
> well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....
Touché.
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:21 am
by EspressoLover
Geopolitical pessimists have succesfully predicted 57 of the past 2 world wars.
Not saying this type of thing can't blow up into something bigger, but historical comparisons tend to suffer from availability bias. For every assassination in Sarajevo, there's a dozen Fashoda incidents. Successfully defused crises rarely feature prominently in the history books, so we tend to imagine contemporary events ending in the worst case scenario.
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:34 am
by Nonius
well, youse guys are actually preaching to the choir. I know someone who is being paid a lot to try to predict these things with machine learning. (nothing wrong with getting paid by the way, hehe). I remain sceptical. but it's fun to watch stuff unfold.
The one thing that bugs me about some of these people. They will often, ex-poste, tell you they predicted some unpredictable event. And, why aren't they clipping coupons in the sun, eh?
it reminds me a bit of a certain guy down in Madrid. won't mention names. he kept on saying US Treasuries going to blow up cuz of this, that and the other thing. Now, I ain't no macro guy, but I was thinking, ok bro. when it going to happen? ah, well, at some point, or something like that. meanwhile....
I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:49 am
by chiral3
I find that when I am wrong about events out-of-sample they are clearly outliers.