I smell a Dragon getting pissed off.

Nonius · Post by **Nonius** » Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:34 am

South China Sea

Kitno · Post by **Kitno** » Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:07 pm

This is like how wars get begun innit.

A rising power getting crimped by the current big dog.

Hmmm 1871, 1914, 1931, 1941, 1949, etc.

When, not if. No one ever learns.

Nonius · Post by **Nonius** » Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:28 pm

yeah, I've a friend who's "sure" a war's going to start over that or Putin clobbering someone.

Nonius · Post by **Nonius** » Fri Jul 15, 2016 11:19 pm

and maybe an angry Turkey?

ronin · Post by **ronin** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:47 pm

That story is so last week.

In 2016, geopolitical crises last 15 minutes. Take that, Andy Warholl.

Nonius · Post by **Nonius** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:30 pm

well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....right when it was announced mofo.

on the geopolitical shit. I'm guessing at least Turkey ain't over. Angry

edit: ok, I guess you refer to Turkey.

ronin · Post by **ronin** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:51 pm

> well, yeah Ronin, it was so last week. Then again, I posted this, er, last week.....

Touché.

EspressoLover · Post by **EspressoLover** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:21 am

Geopolitical pessimists have succesfully predicted 57 of the past 2 world wars.

Not saying this type of thing can't blow up into something bigger, but historical comparisons tend to suffer from availability bias. For every assassination in Sarajevo, there's a dozen Fashoda incidents. Successfully defused crises rarely feature prominently in the history books, so we tend to imagine contemporary events ending in the worst case scenario.

Nonius · Post by **Nonius** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 12:34 am

well, youse guys are actually preaching to the choir. I know someone who is being paid a lot to try to predict these things with machine learning. (nothing wrong with getting paid by the way, hehe). I remain sceptical. but it's fun to watch stuff unfold.

The one thing that bugs me about some of these people. They will often, ex-poste, tell you they predicted some unpredictable event. And, why aren't they clipping coupons in the sun, eh?

it reminds me a bit of a certain guy down in Madrid. won't mention names. he kept on saying US Treasuries going to blow up cuz of this, that and the other thing. Now, I ain't no macro guy, but I was thinking, ok bro. when it going to happen? ah, well, at some point, or something like that. meanwhile....

chiral3 · Post by **chiral3** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:49 am

I find that when I am wrong about events out-of-sample they are clearly outliers.