What do we expect for the coming week?

Strange · Post by **Strange** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:47 pm

With IndyMac dead, GSEs on the ropes, Lehman eating shit - are we expecting a major, major meltdown?

solider · Post by **solider** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:33 pm

VIX hovered below the 30 level on friday and, at least on the equity side, finally saw vols moving signficantly higher across the term structure. IMHO, a sharp move is on it way, but could be up/down, so id rather be flat delta, long gamma/vega right now, even at these levels (it pays to be long).

mathematalef0 · Post by **mathematalef0** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 9:53 pm

Good, good question....... potential meltdown accompanied by fed saving another major bank???

I think all asset classes are on the edge of a knife, with every piece of information playing a big role.

I agree with solider , long gamma is a good position to have.

granchio · Post by **granchio** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:25 pm

edge of cliff stuff.

of course fed/gov will make as many soothing noises as possible.

GSE equity is fried though, IMHO. LEH don't know - maybe.

i'd keep an eye on the middle east. israel/palestinians making peace noises, could be preliminary to iranian deal too, oil price seriously down. not coincidental IMHO.

long gamma? of course... since quite a few days.

volga · Post by **volga** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:42 pm

long gamma..yes please..buying correlation equity/commodity at the current realised levels..yes please..staying long oil..yes please....if theres any noise with Israel and Iran this week after their ongoing show off of nuclear muscles you can be assured that oil will skyrocket and with the current market phenomenon of dumping equities as long as oil rallies will continue..so stay long gamma / cross gamma etc..dont try to express too many views..stay as neutral as possible..get in early..stay late..keep your head down and job the mkt hard..

FDAXHunter · Post by **FDAXHunter** » Mon Jul 14, 2008 8:13 am

Whoa! With so much negativity, I just have to be contrarian. The (temporary) low must be very near indeed! Smiley

filthy · Post by **filthy** » Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:03 pm

These are all valid concerns. However the vast majority of volatility in the market is never explained and while markets aren't totally inefficient these other factors aren't exactly unknown to the rest of the market.

anyway. i'm short.

good luck everyone.

Path Integral · Post by **Path Integral** » Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:04 pm

commodities: bullish on cows Cool

filthy · Post by **filthy** » Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:10 pm

buy MOO?

CokeHead · Post by **CokeHead** » Mon Jul 14, 2008 6:49 pm

long gamma short vega...dear god help me